A perfect hand for teacher
Rarely, in one hand, does one get an opportunity to teach the essence of duplicate bridge and some essential vital statistics. Hand 14 (Wednesday) was a perfect example of card play and card distribution knowledge.

Imagine sitting North on the above hand and you hear a pass from East and partner open 1D!! I was always taught the expression ‘slowly slowly catchee monkey’ especially when you have a shortage in partner’s suit. On this hand although inwardly I am doing cartwheels, outwardly I will bid a very solemn 1S. I would expect my partner on this hand to force in diamonds (3D), a little light but better than two clubs, and I will quietly bid 4NT (keycard in diamonds!). Partner with four controls will bid 5D and my next bid will be 7S!! Partner has shown AK of diamonds, together with the aces of hearts and clubs. That adds up to 15 HCP and we always reserve partners second bid for a ‘good’ suit so I am hoping the diamonds will be enough for my baby hearts. What more do I need?
Any partner of mine who converts this to 7NT would be summarily executed at dawn the very next morning! So where is the ‘teaching of bridge essence’ you ask? As I said before ‘slowly slowly…’.
On Wednesday the hand was played thirteen times, twice in 6N and four times in 6S. Two pairs got to the grand slam in NT (Oops) and one pair reached the grand slam in spades. 7NT is doomed from the start as partner’s diamonds are a shade lighter than advertised and unfortunately the declarer in 7S ended a trick short. Those in 6S all made twelve tricks but those in 6NT also made the same 12 tricks. 23 match points to 6N (undeserved. It should have been much less.) and only 17 for 6S (undeserved. It should have been even less than those in 6NT!).
No one in spades made the indicated 13 tricks whilst those in 6NT made the 12 tricks they had from the start – six spades and two in each of the other suits. Unfortunately the score sheets on the internet do not show the opening lead so I must guess. Either a spade or the jack of diamonds is the obvious lead against 7S, the latter probably being the more popular and unfortunately this lead creates the bigger problem.
In no trump declarer must count tricks. Indeed in any contract the teacher always says count your losers – count your winners – and asses the dangers. As stated earlier there are twelve ice cold tricks. Hell may freeze over (pardon the expression) but it will be a very bad break in spades to beat your twelve tricks i.e. 4-0 in spades on the wrong side. The odds of this happening are just under 5% and in this case 6NT bid and made. Note the same odds exist in 6S.
In 6S you are getting a poorer score if you only make 12 tricks as you can see that the same12 tricks are made in NT. This you see on the first lead and must realize. Can you find a thirteenth trick that is not available to the no trump specialists for a better match point score?
This is Lesson 1 from this hand – Think what the others are doing on the same hand before setting your target. The higher you aim, the better your chances are of obtaining a score above par. Remember this is pairs, where the odd ten points does matter, not teams where we simply play safe.
If we are in 6S, to get a better score than those in 6NT we have to make an extra trick therefore we have to imagine where we can create that extra chance. How many extra tricks do we need? We have 12 tricks and we are aiming to make 13. Thus we need ONE extra trick, not available to those in NT.
Where will it come from?
To those who answered the last question with ‘the diamond suit’, go to the bottom of the class. On the jack of diamonds lead this suit is poison. East has advertised his intention. He will ruff the second diamond. Is there another chance? One single ruff in dummy of a heart is all we appear to need. But beware – communication in this hand is basically non-existent. Do not get carried away. PLAN the play and see that one single ruff is insufficient. There is no way back to dummy after the ruff and drawing trumps! We actually need two ruffs to set up the hearts. What are we going to ruff? Obviously hearts.
Therefore on the jack of diamonds lead we suspect that East has a singleton. In order to make 13 tricks, the king of diamonds as a trick has disappeared. [Check your entries. You cannot try to cash the king as East will over ruff and you cannot re-enter dummy if you engineer a heart ruff]. Thus suddenly we need two ruffs in dummy to be sure. [In reality we only need one as the computer has givenEast QJ9and one ruff promotes our ten but we do not know this].
Analyzing probable distributions we see that we have five club cards in total, six cards in the heart suit and seven in the diamond suit.
Chances of East having a singleton in diamonds are (without the ‘crazy’ lead) 7.25 %. The chance of East holding a singleton diamond, after seeing the lead of the jack, are around 100%. Think of the bidding!
Continuing with our analysis we calculate that the chances of West having a singleton heart are just below 3.5% and having a doubleton heart around 15%. Note these probabilities are half of the standard figure, as we are being specific about the opponent. Chances of East holding a singleton club are just under 1.5% and the chances of East holding a doubleton club are about 8.5%.
Put very simply the larger the number of outstanding cards, the smaller the chance of encountering a singleton in either hand.[ For this analysis I have just selected the danger hands].
Thus to ruff one heart in dummy is 97% and to ruff two hearts in dummy is about 85% (not good odds in a grand slam but way better than trying to cash the king of diamonds). Getting back to hand by ruffing a club is around 99%, whilst ruffing a diamond is about 95% but, if we believe East, in this case 0% as he has led the jack.
This is lesson 2. Weigh up your best line of play before you play a single card!
According to this plan, take the jack of diamonds with the ace. Play the ace of hearts (note the nine from East) and lead a small club to the king. Ruff a small heart in dummy (noting East’s jack). Cash the ace of clubs, discarding a heart, and note West’s queen. Breathe a small sigh of satisfaction as West, who has five diamonds, has apparently only two clubs and is therefore unlikely to be short in hearts, an original danger to the plan. Lead a small club and ruff small. (If West ruffs simply over ruff). East follows. West, however, will probably discard a diamond. Ruff another heart noting the fall of the all important queen. Ruff a club and draw trumps – you are home. You have beaten those no trump divas.
On a trump lead, take the trump in hand. We do not have the same entry problem. Play a small heart to the ace. Play a club to the king. Ruff a small heart in dummy. Ruff a club in hand and draw trumps. Enter dummy with a diamond and discard two hearts on the ace of clubs and king of diamonds. Thirteen tricks bid and made.
Celebrate your forward thinking.